State leaders trying to figure out how much money to expect for fiscal year beginning July 1

Posted on March 9, 2021
The governor’s office this year predicts about $1 billion more than COGFA does. (Dave Dahl/WJBC)

 

By Dave Dahl

SPRINGFIELD – The economic slump brought on by the pandemic will end; it’s just a matter of when.

“The pessimistic version has us crossing the pre-pandemic level further out: almost the end of ‘21 or the beginning of ‘22,” said Jim Muschinske, revenue manager of the state’s independent forecasting agency. “The optimistic version instead has us crossing the pre-pandemic level much earlier: probably the second quarter, maybe the third quarter.”

Muschinske gave lawmakers on the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability his revenue estimate of $40.396 billion for the fiscal year beginning July 1. That’s about $1 billion short of last year’s estimate, which Muschinske called artificially inflated.

The governor’s office this year predicts about $1 billion more than COGFA does; Muschinske says that is because the governor’s budget director is calculating revenue from the closure of corporate tax loopholes, as the governor mentioned in this year’s budget speech.

Slide 1 (ilga.gov)

Dave Dahl can be reached at [email protected]

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