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By Dave Dahl
SPRINGFIELD – The economic slump brought on by the pandemic will end; it’s just a matter of when.
“The pessimistic version has us crossing the pre-pandemic level further out: almost the end of ‘21 or the beginning of ‘22,” said Jim Muschinske, revenue manager of the state’s independent forecasting agency. “The optimistic version instead has us crossing the pre-pandemic level much earlier: probably the second quarter, maybe the third quarter.”
Muschinske gave lawmakers on the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability his revenue estimate of $40.396 billion for the fiscal year beginning July 1. That’s about $1 billion short of last year’s estimate, which Muschinske called artificially inflated.
The governor’s office this year predicts about $1 billion more than COGFA does; Muschinske says that is because the governor’s budget director is calculating revenue from the closure of corporate tax loopholes, as the governor mentioned in this year’s budget speech.
Dave Dahl can be reached at [email protected]