By Dave Dahl
SPRINGFIELD – Republicans running in the 2022 election have to face this question: how loyal are you to former President Donald Trump?
“The answer, I think, comes in two stages,” says University of Illinois political science president Brian Gaines. “Will it be a primary problem or a general election problem. I think Democrats would very much like to make it a general election problem and try to make every Republican in Chicago area and the suburbs out to be a Trump loyalist, whether they are or they aren’t.”
The rule of thumb has been the off-year election, such as 2022, will favor the party which is not in the White House. Gaines says while President Biden’s approval ratings are low, nobody knows how low they will be a year from now – and voters will be more likely to look at which candidate will be better on the economy and covid, as opposed to trying to relitigate the 2020 election.
Gaines says it appears Trump is not finished with politics, and the 2024 president election could be the first rematch since Adlai Stevenson and Dwight Eisenhower met twice in the 1950’s – and only one president has served non-consecutive terms. Grover Cleveland won in 1884, lost in 1888, and won again in 1892.
Some Republicans embrace Trump more closely than others. Illinois’ leading anti-Trump Republican, U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Channahon), is leaving Congress, rather than engage in a primary with the more conservative U.S. Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Dunlap). Freshman U.S. Rep. Mary Miller (R-Oakland) positions herself as a darling of the far right, while U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville) does not repudiate Trump. On the other hand, he boasts bipartisan credentials and refuses to say whether he is a Trump voter.
Dave Dahl can be reached at [email protected]
