PEORIA, Ill. (WMBD) — The active weather pattern we’ve experienced throughout the month of March looks to continue into early April as another strong storm system is set to move through the Midwest on Wednesday.
Key Takeaways
- Multiple rounds of storms possible between 6 am and 6 pm
- Better chances for severe storms in the afternoon are along and east of the Illinois River
- All severe hazards are possible, some significant
The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Illinois within a Level 3 Risk (Enhanced Risk) for severe weather. All hazards including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible. SPC has mentioned that depending on how the evolution of the morning storms play out, an upgrade to a Level 4 Risk (Moderate Risk) may be needed.
Remember, risk does not guarantee outcome. Not everyone will experience severe weather on Wednesday, nor are we calling for that. However, the ceiling for this event is quite high, so those that do see severe storms could experience some significant impacts.
There is still a considerable uncertainty as to the overall impact from morning thunderstorms, which are expected to reach western portions of our area between 6 am and 9 am. The strength of these morning storms is unclear but if they are able to maintain their strength, they will be capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes and would likely limit the potential for additional severe storms in the afternoon. If these storms move through in a weaker state, a second round of severe weather would be possible along and east of the Illinois River Valley in the afternoon.
Should the atmosphere recover in the wake of the these morning storms, I see a bimodal event taking shape where we see one area of severe storms north of I-72 with a separate area of storms near and south of I-70.
Yellow Area – Low Confidence
The risk in this region, which is along and east of the Illinois River and north of I-72, is conditional and depends on the ability for the atmosphere to recover in the wake of the morning storms. If they develop, they could do so as early as 10 or 11 am and continue into the afternoon and evening. These would be scattered supercells capable of all hazards including the potential for very large hail up to 2.0″ in diameter, 75 mph wind gusts, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
If the atmosphere doesn’t recover then the main severe weather event would occur in Area 2 and the Peoria/Bloomington region will be largely spared.
Red Area – High Confidence
The risk for severe weather is higher here and likely takes place regardless of any morning thunderstorm activity. These would be a mix of supercells and bowing segments that would be capable of producing all hazards, some significant.
Storm Timing
A line of weakening storms are expected to impact areas west of the Illinois River between 6 am and 9 am Wednesday. While these storms should be weakening, they may still produce gusty winds and hail, particularly west of the Illinois River.
Depending on the impacts of the morning round of storms, a second round of storms may develop along the Illinois River between 11 am and 2 pm and lift to the northeast and out of our area through 6 pm. These storms will be capable of all hazards including tornadoes if they develop. Regardless of morning thunderstorms, more widespread severe weather is expected across southern Illinois.
