By Dave Dahl

SPRINGFIELD – The congressional map-making expected this month will almost assuredly favor Democrats, according to a political scientist at the University of Illinois. One way to make life difficult for Republicans, says professor Brian Gaines, would be to put two in the same district. That’s not all.

“One of the tried and true methods of making things harder for an incumbent is to just give them a lot of population they have not represented before, so they have to rebuild their personal vote,” said Gaines. “So I’m expecting to see quite a lot of revision in the southern half of the state.”

Illinois’ congressional delegation, which now favors Democrats, 13-5, will have only 17 House members after the every-ten-years remap. Is the supermajority party topped out, or can it make even more gains?

“If you draw clever enough lines, I think the real question with losing a seat, can they get it down to 13-4? I think that would take very non-compact districts,” adding Illinois is famous for gerrymandering the state into strangely shaped districts as it is.

The Democrats, Gaines said, would risk carving less safe districts, especially in an off-year election which could favor the party that’s not in the White House.

Gaines is part of the university’s Institute of Government and Public Affairs.

Dave Dahl can be reached at [email protected].