WJBC Forum: Economic outlook for state and local governments

By Ron Ulmer

Our Country, Illinois and McLean County continue to struggle to recover from the recession.  The U. S. economy has been creating about 200,000 new jobs per month with an annual economic growth rate of 1 to 2 percent.  The country needs a minimum of 300,000 new jobs per month coupled with an annual economic growth rate of 3% to pull us out of the recession.  Sadly, a headline in last Thursday’s Pantagraph read, U.S. job openings continuing to slow.

Over the past 5 years Illinois’ population has been stagnant while McLean County experienced a 3.5% population growth.  However, the percent of the population employed has decreased at all levels of government.As a result, the ever growing government budgets are supported by fewer employed citizens.

While some of this trend is attributable to the baby boomers retiring, much of it is attributable to recent college and high school graduates who cannot find jobs.  Additionally, many millennials have become so discouraged by the lack of job opportunities that they are no longer looking for a job and some will never seek employment again, thereby never contributing to the economic growth or paying taxes.

What direction does this information provide to state and local government budgeting?Keep your revenue projections at or below the anemic economic growth rates.  Tax increases will cause more people to leave Illinois and McLean County.  Quit picking winners and losers by increasing taxes on everyone and then giving tax breaks to large financially strong companies to expand locally especially when they had already planned to expand here. Studies have shown lower tax rates for all citizens and businesses will create more economic development than higher overall tax rates with the government giving tax breaks to a few chosen businesses.

I close with this admonishment to local officials.  Do not assume that the expected reimbursement from the State and Federal government will always be paid to local programs as the State and Federal governments are dead broke.  Did it really come as a surprise to Connect Transit who just spent a lot of money to expand its services that the State subsidies to operational expenses are falling further behind and that some or all services may need to be terminated by year’s end?

David Stanczak, a Forum commentator since 1995, came to Bloomington in 1971. He served as the City of Bloomington’s first full-time legal counsel for over 18 years, before entering private practice. He is currently employed by the Snyder Companies and continues to reside in Bloomington with his family.

The opinions expressed within WJBC’s Forum are solely those of the Forum’s author, and are not necessarily those of WJBC or Cumulus Media Inc.

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